Vlatka’s Predictions for 2023

If you ask 100 economists for their predictions on the economy you will get 200 different answers. I have no crystal ball but I will make my best gestimates about the 2023 real estate market.

Background Thesis

The economy was zooming along and then suddenly inflation reared its head. Inflation can get out of control and completely wipe out the wealth of a nation, so the Federal Reserve takes it seriously.

So what caused our inflation? Some people say it was tax cuts, some say it was stimulus payments, and others say it was 14 years of quantative easing and cheap money. In fact I think those were all minor contributing factors. The real cause was Covid messing up our supply chains. The bad news is that Covid isn’t disappearing. The good news is that even China has now come to terms with that fact and are allowing infected cities to continue to manufacture and ship products. This all means that inflation will ease, even without us hiking interest rates. This in turn means mortgage rates will go down. This in turn means the housing market will return. In fact, every minute 8 homes sell in the U.S. The only thing that can stop the recovery is the fear that there is worse to come. One other snag is that builders aren’t building and many homeowners do not want to walk away from 2.5% mortgages, so inventory is going to be in short supply.


Prediction #1 – Inflation reduces
Prediction #2 – Mortgage rates go down
Prediction #3 – Housing recovers
Prediction #4 – There will be a shortage of Inventory
Predicated on – People not jumping on the negative vibes band wagon.